Time to Think about Major Strategy Change

Time to Think about Major Strategy Change
an Ordinary Burmese Analyst

Recent developments in our homeland and the attention it gets in the international community give Burmese another hope for a democratic change. And the change of tones from world capitals especially from neighboring countries makes us rethink our strategy how to topple the long rooted authoritarian rule.

First and foremost, it is no surprising for us to hear more condemnations and sanctions from the West including the United States. It is natural for western democratic governments to support any democratic movement worldwide. However, we should also note that the sanctions imposed so far failed to act on companies that are currently benefiting from Burma, eg.Total. The sanctions also missed the individuals and groups that support the regime financially, eg. Max Myanmar. In my opinion, the opposition groups in exile are depending too much on the west that leads to suspicions from some Asian capitals. The best strategy with the west is to convince them that future benefits after the democratic change in Burma is much greater for western firms and some sacrifices have to be done presently to achieve our common goals. At the same time, the opposition groups should have access to lawmakers and government officials to discuss about expanding the list of sanction. With those changes, it will be very difficult for the regime and its cronies to call the "business as usual".

Secondly, let me discuss about the two giants, China and India, surrounding our country. The Dragon and Tiger found the common game field, Burma. It is not in their interest to have a democratic Burma nor a Western supported government of any kind in their backyard. Their main interest is not to let the other dominates the game field and to prey on scarce food, here it refers to resources. China is more important for military government because it is a permanent member of UN Security Council and is providing logical and material support for the SPDC. The opposition groups in exile should admit the fact that their initiatives on boycotting Olympics will result in nothing but the media attention and applauses from the oppressed Burmese. No western government will support the idea and it will push Chinese government to continue defending SPDC rather than pushing SPDC to change. Opposition groups in exile should continue talking to China and use conciliatory measures to keep China pressure the regime. In case of India, we have nothing but to let India stay neutral as long
as it does not promote SPDC. It yields no power on Burma and it will take whatever it gets from the regime to keep its mouth shut. The ideologies are the same for Russia and it is natural to see Russia to counter the West. We should never expect the moral values from these three countries.

Lastly, and most importantly opposition groups should increase their relations with ASEAN countries especially with its current president, Singapore. Recent changes in their stance toward the regime are plausible especially from Singapore. Today, I have read an article from Channel News Asia, a semi-government mouth piece, about Ministry
of Foreign Affairs' response to 88 Generation Students Group's letter. Never did they recognize the existence of such a group before. I am sure it is time for the opposition groups to grasp the opportunity to contact Singapore government to exchange views. It is obvious that Singapore and other ASEAN governments don't want to see an outpost of China in Burma.

Let me conclude by saying that it is time for us, especially the opposition groups in exile under different banners, to rethink the strategic plans according to the developments happening rather than to stick our old strategies. The world has changed in its response and so must we.

An Ordinary Burmese Analyst

(It's only an unknown author's voice.)